This IMD forecast for 2026 southwest monsoon is honestly not giving good feeling at all . When rainfall prediction itself is around 90% of Long Period Average (LPA),with margin of error of plus-minus 4%,it means country may have to prepare for below-normal rains from June to September.
And this is not small thing ah,because monsoon is not just about weather in India . It decides farming,water storage,food prices,electricity generation and even mood of rural economy in many places.
India Meteorological Department ( IMD ) has said there is high probability of below-normal rainfall across country . Forecast is already raising concern because 2026 season could turn out to be one of weakest in recent years if this pattern actually plays out.
Core monsoon zone is especially worrying here . This zone includes many rain-fed farming areas which are directly linked with food production. Northeast India may still get normal rainfall,but Northwest India,Central India and South Peninsular India are projected to see deficient rains.
Few things standing out clearly in this forecast:
- 84% probability of below-normal rainfall — indicates major risk for agricultural output .
- Increased heatwave days likely — especially in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
- El Niño conditions developing — known to suppress monsoon activity badly.
For June 2026,IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall over most parts of India . At same time,above-normal temperatures are expected,which means more heatwave days may hit states like Uttar Pradesh,Haryana and Andhra Pradesh.
But interestingly,some areas like Rajasthan and Jharkhand may see fewer heatwave days than usual . Still,overall picture is uncomfortable because less rain plus more heat is dangerous mix for crops,groundwater and drinking water supply .
A lot of this forecast is linked to developing El Niño conditions in equatorial Pacific Ocean . Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral right now and expected to stay neutral through monsoon season,so it may not give much extra support either.
And tbh,this early warning is coming at bad time because many areas are still recovering from earlier weather anomalies . Weak monsoon can hit crop yields,water availability,groundwater stress,hydroelectric power generation and drinking water supply in different regions.
IMD has advised state governments and farmers to prepare contingency plans like efficient water management,drought-resistant crop varieties and better water conservation measures . More detailed forecast for July will come at end of June,but till then question is simple… how ready are we if rains really fail this time…
