RBI’s latest State of the Economy report honestly feels like good news and warning mixed together . On one side,India’s own demand is still holding up,but on other side,pressure from West Asia crisis is making near-term picture look uneasy.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clearly said,"Domestic demand continues to be the key driver of growth," and that line matters . Because despite global tensions,people inside country are still spending,buying,moving and keeping growth engine alive .
But report is not all cheerful also. Supply-side pressures are still hanging around,especially because of ongoing crisis in West Asia . And when oil,trade and costs get affected from outside,India also feels heat eventually,not small thing ah .
Few things standing out from report:
- E-way bills showed double-digit growth,and petrol and diesel consumption stayed on upward trajectory .
- Rural markets showed double-digit growth in automobile sales,especially tractors and two-wheelers .
- Manufacturing stayed fairly steady with growth in cement and steel production.
At same time,overall petroleum consumption declined in April because use of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped sharply . RBI also linked fall in toll transactions to FASTag Annual Pass scheme,which may have changed how people are using toll roads .
And labour market part feels uncomfortable. Report says unemployment rate has risen,especially in rural areas,even though regular salaried jobs have increased . Labour force participation rate and worker population ratio also moderated,which means job picture is not as clean as headline numbers may suggest.
Travel side also got hit because aviation turbine fuel prices went up,and that hurt air passenger traffic . Services sector still showed strength in April because domestic demand helped,but export orders were affected by West Asia conflict and weaker inbound tourism .
Agriculture gave some relief though . Summer sowing is moving better than previous year figures and normal acreage,which could support output if things stay on track . But manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed slower momentum in new orders and output because rising costs and geopolitical tensions are still creating pressure .
So overall,RBI report is basically saying India’s internal demand is strong enough to keep things moving,but outside shocks are not going away quietly . Growth is there,but stress is also there in same frame…
