So on July 11,2025 Indian equity markets are clearly not having best morning . Both Nifty and Sensex are bracing for weak opening and honestly it feels like markets are just continuing same tired downward trend that has been playing out over past two sessions.
And the trigger for all this? Donald Trump. Again .
US President Trump recently announced plans to slap 35 percent tariff on imports from Canada starting August 1 . And if that was not enough,he also hinted at potential blanket duties ranging from 15 to 20 percent on numerous other trade partners . Global investors immediately got nervous and that fear is now flowing straight into Indian markets.
This is basically reigniting fears of one full-blown global trade war . And when that kind of uncertainty enters the picture,emerging markets like India always feel pressure early .
Few key numbers worth paying attention to right now:
- GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,283 as of 7:55 a.m.,down 127 points or 0.5 percent.
- Key support sits at 25,300 — sustained close below this could signal further weakness in market structure.
- Resistance zone of 25,550–25,600 continues attracting selling pressure and remains critical for any upward move .
Now here is one thing that is slightly interesting . India VIX actually decreased by 2.24 percent to close at 11.67 . That number is sitting well below psychological threshold of 15 . What that basically means is investor fear is not exactly at panic level right now . Instead of sharp crashes,what markets are experiencing is slow,range-bound movement . Which in some ways feels even more frustrating than one clean fall.
IT sector is also becoming real problem area . In previous session,Nifty IT index was big drag on overall performance . Major names like Infosys,Wipro,TCS and Tech Mahindra all faced notable declines . Analysts are already cautioning that IT sector may face lackluster earnings season ahead,which is only adding to cautious sentiment building across market.
And institutional activity is sending mixed signals honestly . Foreign Portfolio Investors have been increasing their short positions in index futures,showing clear preference for caution . But at same time both FPIs and domestic institutional investors were net buyers recently,which suggests some underlying support is still present . So situation is not completely one-sided.
Market expert Dhupesh Dhameja from SAMCO Securities noted that firm resistance has developed around 57,350 where selling pressure has consistently emerged . He pointed out clearly that unless index closes above this resistance,sustained bullish reversal is unlikely . Price action right now remains indecisive,oscillating between 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages,consolidating within narrow band of 56,800–57,300 .
What makes this moment tricky is that there is no single dramatic crash happening . Just slow grinding pressure from multiple directions — trade war fears,IT sector concerns,institutional caution… everything compressing markets into uncomfortable waiting zone .
And the real question nobody can fully answer right now is how far Trump's tariff announcements will actually go . Threats and actual policy are sometimes very different things,but by time full picture becomes clear,damage to sentiment is usually already done
